April 14, 2026  |  Core 9 Weekly Update

Markets were volatile this past week. Tariff noise, geopolitical flare-ups, and an Iran conflict pause pushed the S&P 500 in multiple directions. CAPE sits at 40.54 ... well above the long-run mean of 17. The index is essentially flat year to date, but under the surface our nine positions tell a more useful story.

Trading near its 52-week low (range: €31 to €52). Q4 2025 revenue grew 5.3% year over year, or 10.2% at constant currency. Full-year 2025 delivered 13.5% revenue growth. The global sauna market is approaching €4 billion and growing above its historical 5% annual rate. HARVIA holds more than 20% of the heater and component segment. Four analysts, four Strong Buy ratings. Average price target: €44.50 ... a 32% gap from today. Our thesis is intact.

Down 45% year to date. Touched its 52-week low of $909 after a 14% single-day drop on April 10. The trigger was an analyst downgrade ... not earnings. FICO actually beat Q1 2026 estimates. What we are seeing is multiple compression, not business deterioration. The securitization moat is unchanged. And that's what most investors get wrong here. They think the score is the moat. I think the score is key, but the real mode is securitization.

Up 16% this week and the portfolio's standout performer. The catalyst was concrete: Arista launched a 12.8 Tbps liquid-cooled pluggable optics module and signed a multi-source agreement for industry adoption. Rosenblatt upgraded to Buy at $180. Truist initiated at Buy, $161. For FY2026, ANET targets $3.25 billion in AI networking revenue, roughly 30% of projected $11.25B total revenue. The AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating and Arista is its connective tissue.

A slight Q1 miss: EPS $1.95 versus $1.97 expected. The stock is roughly 15% off highs but stable in the $233 to $240 range. Official Q1 2026 results due late April and that will be the next real data point. AWS trajectory and advertising growth remain the core drivers. Not exciting between earnings ... which is often a buying signal, not a warning. I'd love to add to Amazon over the next weeks if it dips a little.

Ferrari beat Q1 2026 across the board. EBITDA came in at €537 million versus €509 million expected, up 27% year over year. Deliveries rose 9.7% to 3,567 units. Revenue from cars and spare parts surged 23% to €1.24 billion, lifted by pricing power, personalizations, and demand from mainland China and the Americas. Full-year guidance: €7.5 billion in revenue with a 39% EBITDA margin. Four new model launches planned this year. Nine analysts, Strong Buy consensus, average target $478. Executing exactly as it should.

The hardest position to hold and, in our view, the highest-conviction one. Sea Limited grew 2025 revenue 36%, gross profit 42%, and net income 260% to $1.6 billion. Yet the stock dropped 26% in a single session on March 3 after Q4 EPS missed by $0.17 due to Shopee logistics costs rising 43% alongside order volume growth. At $82 today, Sea trades at less than 60% of analyst consensus target of $140. The digital finance division has 37 million active borrowers and $9.2 billion in loans, up 80% year over year. Shopee and Garena continue to grow. The gap between price and business reality is unusually wide. We have not been selling a single share this year nor last year.

Holding above its 52-week low of $1,593. Jefferies upgraded to Buy this week with a target of $2,600. Seventeen analysts cover the stock, Strong Buy consensus, average target $2,725. The discount reflects a regional risk premium on LatAm exposure, not any deterioration in MercadoLibre's e-commerce or fintech operations. The story is still strong, and the runway immense. Personally, I'm excited by the additional flywheel that's coming in from the fintech data about customer behaviors that can be reused on the e-commerce side. This one will need more patience because CapEx means deteriorating profits in the short term

Visa beat Q1 2026 cleanly. EPS $3.17 versus $3.14 expected. Revenue $10.9 billion versus $10.68 billion, up 15% year over year. Payments volume approached $4 trillion (up 8%). Transactions hit 69 billion (up 9%). Visa is a toll booth on global commerce and keeps collecting. Flat year to date due to macro sentiment ... not any crack in the underlying business. I think it will be a strong year for Visa.

Too expensive right now if you don't own it already, but I'm glad we own it. Here is the overlooked angle: Linde supplies nitrogen and argon critical for semiconductor fab processes, tying its growth directly to AI chip production and data center buildouts. Management guided for 2026 EPS of $17.40 to $17.90, representing 6% to 9% growth. Quiet compounder with a clear secular tailwind that is just now getting wider attention.

RACE and V delivered on fundamentals this week. ANET broke out on a real product catalyst. SE and FICO remain the heaviest weights in the portfolio ... both situations where price has moved far from what the business is worth, in our view. AMZN and MELI are consolidating. HARVIA and LIN are steady compounders that cannot be stopped, even by Claude Code.

Q1 2026 earnings season accelerates the week of April 13. AMZN reports late April. Stay focused on the business, not the tape. I'm wondering if I should do some live streams to cover the earnings reports of our Core 9 live? let me know if that would be relevant to you, then I will try to carve out some time.

Stay sharp. Keep rolling.

Simon & The Sprinters

By the way, have you seen our new book? Marshall, Rory, and Verne love it so far.