Jul 20, 2026
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3 min read
Down 32% After the Best Quarter in Company History
4 min read
$40 is a real level. The timing is not there yet. What the pace, the RSI, and the Iridium deal actually say.
Jul 18, 2026
5 min read
A real signal fired the same week as a real reason to be careful. Five scenarios, three years out.
Jul 16, 2026
6 min read
TSMC posted record Q2 2026 earnings and raised guidance. The stock fell 4.6% anyway. Five scenarios, three years out.
Jul 14, 2026
A conversation about Ferrovial's airports, tested against Mexico's actual tariff rules.
Jul 12, 2026
Hyperscalers are sold out of power. Only three companies on the planet make the big turbines. One passes the 25/25 screen.
Jul 11, 2026
Reinvestment rate × return on incremental capital = long-run growth. We graded every position we hold — real money. Two of them broke the formula.
Jul 7, 2026
The Bear Case Against My Own Bullish Instinct
Jul 6, 2026
While everyone sells software, we buy: a serial acquirer with 30%+ ROIC, a 20-year playbook, a stock down 60%. Five scenarios inside.
Jul 3, 2026
Four days ago I said no to Lumine. Today I put it back on the buy list. Here is what changed.
May 18, 2026
Reddit Owns the One Thing AI Can't Fake. Here's the Investment Thesis.
May 13, 2026
One Anthropic update killed a startup with a 70% close rate overnight.
