Archive

New Position Initiated

A small industrial compounder just entered the Compounding Portfolio: real FY2025 financials, a moat nobody's pricing, a genuine institutional buyer signal, and our own 5-scenario return model. Name and ticker revealed inside for subscribers.

simon severino

Credo's ROIC Just Went From 14 Percent to 86 Percent. Three Customers Still Explain 88 Percent of Revenue.

Aug 23, 2026

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7 min read

Credo's ROIC Just Went From 14 Percent to 86 Percent. Three Customers Still Explain 88 Percent of Revenue.

ROIC jumped from 14% to 86% in a year, but three customers still explain 88% of revenue. The full moat, concentration, and five-scenario math.

simon severino

SpaceX Is Now a Stock. Here's What the First Ten Weeks Actually Told Us.

Aug 22, 2026

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4 min read

SpaceX Is Now a Stock. Here's What the First Ten Weeks Actually Told Us.

The honest read on the largest IPO in history: the unlock schedule that actually moves the stock, and why a clean valuation model does not exist yet.

simon severino

MIAX: The Stock Growing 35% That Analysts Model to Shrink 25%

Aug 17, 2026

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5 min read

MIAX: The Stock Growing 35% That Analysts Model to Shrink 25%

The exchange operator's numbers look incredible. Here's the one number that explains why Wall Street doesn't fully believe them yet.

simon severino

EQIX: 24x for the Same AI Theme That's Paying 78x Elsewhere

Aug 17, 2026

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4 min read

EQIX: 24x for the Same AI Theme That's Paying 78x Elsewhere

A 24x multiple for 20% growth. The market hasn't caught up to this REIT yet.

simon severino

Aug 11, 2026

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5 min read

ARM vs. Micron

ARM trades at 118x forward earnings, Micron at 6x, on the exact same AI compute bet. Here's the scenario math on both, from here.

simon severino

Aug 10, 2026

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5 min read

FOPE

FOPE (FPE1.MI) grew revenue 27% in 2025 with a patented gold-mesh moat, 70% family ownership, and a thin float. Five priced scenarios inside.

simon severino

You Don't Need to Pick the AI Winner. You Need to Own the House.

Jul 28, 2026

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4 min read

You Don't Need to Pick the AI Winner. You Need to Own the House.

Five scenarios, ten scores, one stock every AI chip maker pays whether it wins or loses.

simon severino

Jul 20, 2026

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3 min read

MU

Down 32% After the Best Quarter in Company History

simon severino

Rocket Lab Fell 54% in Seven Weeks. Here's the Math on Whether $40 Is Next.

Jul 20, 2026

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4 min read

Rocket Lab Fell 54% in Seven Weeks. Here's the Math on Whether $40 Is Next.

$40 is a real level. The timing is not there yet. What the pace, the RSI, and the Iridium deal actually say.

simon severino

Netflix Fell 47%. The Cash Flow Didn't Get the Memo. Is $67 the Buy?

Jul 18, 2026

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5 min read

Netflix Fell 47%. The Cash Flow Didn't Get the Memo. Is $67 the Buy?

A real signal fired the same week as a real reason to be careful. Five scenarios, three years out.

simon severino

The Chips Just Beat and Raised. The Stock Fell Anyway. Here's Why That's the Buy.

Jul 16, 2026

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6 min read

The Chips Just Beat and Raised. The Stock Fell Anyway. Here's Why That's the Buy.

TSMC posted record Q2 2026 earnings and raised guidance. The stock fell 4.6% anyway. Five scenarios, three years out.

simon severino

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New Position Initiated

Credo's ROIC Just Went From 14 Percent to 86 Percent. Three Customers Still Explain 88 Percent of Revenue.

SpaceX Is Now a Stock. Here's What the First Ten Weeks Actually Told Us.

MIAX: The Stock Growing 35% That Analysts Model to Shrink 25%

EQIX: 24x for the Same AI Theme That's Paying 78x Elsewhere

ARM vs. Micron

FOPE

You Don't Need to Pick the AI Winner. You Need to Own the House.

MU

Rocket Lab Fell 54% in Seven Weeks. Here's the Math on Whether $40 Is Next.

Netflix Fell 47%. The Cash Flow Didn't Get the Memo. Is $67 the Buy?

The Chips Just Beat and Raised. The Stock Fell Anyway. Here's Why That's the Buy.

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